A Study of Alternative Land Use Forecasting Models

ZHAO, F. and CHUNG, S. (2006) A Study of Alternative Land Use Forecasting Models, Final Report to the Florida DOT Systems Planning Office

FSUTMS requires future land use forecasts as input data to predict future travel demand and transportation needs. Given that the performance of the FSUTMS models relies heavily on the accuracy of land use forecast, there is a strong desire by planners to improve model input, especially for future forecast years. The purpose of this study is to survey the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice, as well as to investigate the potential of UrbanSim as a land use model for Florida Applications. UrbanSim is a promising model for its spatial disaggregation (use of parcels to model land development), temporal disaggregation (one-year time steps), dynamics (disequilibrium model); detailed disaggregations of households and firms, and support to activity-based travel models. In this project, UrbanSim is applied to Volusia County, Florida, based on five scenarios of growth and transportation improvements. The model was validated by comparing the simulation results to the socioeconomic and demographic data adopted in the 2020 LRTP and the 2005 InfoUSA employment data. This report describes the implementation process of the land use simulation, including data collection and processing, model estimation and validation, and scenario building and testing. The most significant efforts in this project are related to data imputation and quality control, and model parameter estimation. The UrbanSim model produced reasonable results in a reasonable amount of time. It will be important to develop tools to support data imputation and processing. The modeling results also suggest that the existing “consensus building” processes adopted by many local governments may need improvements to allow community visions to be better reflected through the model.