In the Tyndall Cities project (which is part of the UK Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research) , we have developed a large scale land use transportation model of London and the Thames Gateway which forms the heart of an integrated assessment of the impact of sea level rise on future flooding in south east England. The project chains together a series of models beginning with regional input output models of the national UK economy fashioned to account for environmental and resource change forecast for the next 100 years. This generates employment estimates scaled to small areas at the level of political wards (~ 10,000 people) in the London region which then provides inputs to the land use transport model that enable predictions of the location of future populations to be made (http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/projects/projectDetail.asp?ID=59) .
The results of this model are then scaled down further to site specific levels using cellular urban development model at 50 metre resolution level and this enables the forecasts to be interfaced with the detailed flooding models that are used to examine the impacts of sea level rise over the next 100 years in London and the Thames Gateway. The process is also informed by various transportation forecasts that relate to pollution and to shifts in modal split which are likely to be occasioned by shifts to different energy and power sources for transportation during the long time horizon.
The entire process has been organised through a consortium of UK universities under the umbrella of a major programme of climate change research and this cities theme has focused strongly on a stakeholder dialogue which has driven the science and its application to policy. Key actors in the London region such as Transport for London, the Environment Agency and the Greater London Authority have been instrumental in generating scenarios, guiding the modelling process and evaluating long term impacts through an exhaustive process of debate and dialogue in semi structured and more formal fashion. Visualisation of models inputs and outputs, of scenario outcomes and of the modelling processes themselves has been integral to building this dialogue between practitioners, policy makers, researchers and modellers with this dialogue continuing in a new project that is enriching the integrated assessment to embrace questions of resilience and infrastructure for an extended region involving London and the south east of England. A block diagram of the models involved in terms of how they are chained to one another and how these interact with the stakeholders and with long term climate change predictions from IPCC and UKCIP is pictured below.
This project has finished although it is an essential driver for the ARCADIA project noted below and some of the tools and graphics on the SIMULACRA blog relate to methods developed during this project.
Read the Report here: http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceser/downloads/2009/tyndallcitiesreport.pdf